Who won the trade? Andrew Wiggins for D’Angelo Russell

Gersson Rosas stated in the press conference shortly after the February trade deadline that he had his sights on D’Angelo Russell since his first day on the job.  That was evident in the summer when the Timberwolves met with D’Angelo Russell and even paid for a helicopter to fly Russell around Los Angeles. Finally at the trade deadline the Wolves sent Andrew Wiggins, a 2021 first round pick, and a 2022 second round pick for D’Angelo Russell.  Omari Spellman and Jacob Evans were also included in the trade but that seemed to aid the Warriors mostly to get out the luxury tax as neither of the later players got any playing time with the main Timberwolves roster. And while the Warriors got out of the luxury tax, the Timberwolves find themselves almost half a million in the luxury tax. Rosas gave up a lot for his guy, D’Angelo Russell, and its an aggressive move that could pay off, but is D’Angelo Russell better for the Wolves than Andrew Wiggins?

D’Angelo Russell

Without looking at the numbers, the obvious answer is yes.  The Wolves need a PG that can playmake for Karl-Anthony Towns, and maximize the best player. Also Russell is a proven All-Star and the NBA is driven by stars churning wins for their teams. By dumping Wiggins, who hasn’t worked with KAT, for a proven All-Star is a move in the right direction, even with a loss of a 1st round pick in next years’ draft. 

Besides the passing skills, what makes Russell really good is the pull up shooting ability with range beyond 30 feet. Overall Russell shot 36.7% on 9.8 attempts this year which was similar to last year, his All-Star year. From 25 to 29 feet away, Russell made 36.6% of his threes, and from 30 to 34 feet, Russell made 35.1% of his threes.  Such small margin in shooting percentage from above the break to nearly the logo opens up the court a lot.  

Russell leads the league in attempts early in the shot clock, being so confident in his shot.  Players like Damian Lillard, Trea Young, and Steph Curry will take open 3s within 1 or 2 dribbles after crossing half court, and D’Angelo Russell is among that group. There isn’t a lot of on ball initiators that have the skill and confidence to take these deep shots and Rosas obviously believes that this type of player would be the perfect compliment to Karl-Anthony Towns. Given that KAT is a pick and pop specialist, shooting 40% from above the break, having Russell there who is very comfortable operating in the same area of the floor will allow both stars to play off each other and shoot these deep threes at high frequency, and therefore change the shot chart to something the NBA has never seen before. 

In addition, D’Angelo Russell is in the 90th percentile as an isolation scorer.  When the pull-up 3 is guarded and pick and pop is not there, Russell is capable at creating his own shot, shooting 48.6% from the midrange.  This past year was the best Russell has scored from the midrange and looking at his shooting for his entire career, per NBA.com, there is a great chance that he will continue to improve as a shooter.

D’Angelo Russell
Year	Pull ups (2s)	Pull ups (3s)	Step backs (2s)	Step backs (3s)	Jump shots (2s)	Jump shots (3s)
19/20	41.2% 102 attempts	36.4% 99 attempts	65% 20 attempts	43.6% 39 attempts	40% 63 attempts	33.3% 261 attempts
18/19	46.9% 260 attempts	41.2% 194 attempts	35.1% 37 attempts	34.4% 32 attempts	31.8% 66 attempts	34.8% 394 attempts
17/18	44.9% 107 attempts	27.5% 51 attempts	45.5% 11 attempts	15.4% 13 attempts	32.4% 34 attempts	34.1% 208 attempts
16/17	50.4% 125 attempts	53.3% 30 attempts	30% 10 attempts	50% 10 attempts	24% 96 attempts	32.9% 334 attempts
15/16	42.7% 96 attempts	40.9% 22 attempts	38.9% 18 attempts	42.9% 7 attempts	23.8% 172 attempts	34.8% 333 attempts

The issue with Russell is his lack of scoring at the basket. This season Russell only attempted 9% of his shots in the restricted area, and since the Wolves want to emphasize shot values, shooting the midrange even at 50% is an inefficient shot. When Russell does drive to the basket, his scoring efficiency on drives is 46.7% this year, 38th best, not great compared to other stars, and only averages 9 drives per game which is 55th most among all players. In Rosas’ 5 out offense, someone needs to create penetration to score or kick out to the open man, and the biggest thing that prevents Russell from doing that is the lack of burst to beat his man even when switched onto bigger guys. And when he does get to the basket he is mostly a below the rim player. Looking at Russell’s assists and it looks like he prefers to pass most of the time behind the 3 point arc instead of driving and kicking. D’Angelo Russell reminds me most of CJ McCollum, a good #2 option. McCollum is a great pull up shooter, and mostly operates in the midrange and beyond the arc, but not the best 3 level scorer, and that’s essential for being a #1 option. You just can’t be predictable only scoring on pull-ups from two levels of the floor. In a playoffs when defenses ramp up, you have to operate in all 3 levels. James Harden for example is elite at getting to the basket and shooting 3s, and rarely takes midrange shots, but in the playoffs when the game is tied with 6 seconds to go, he will shock everyone and take a step back from the midrange for the win. You just can’t be predictable like Russell only looking for pull ups and avoiding driving to the basket. In the playoffs defenses will take away the pull up jumpers and force Russell to get to the rim, where he isn’t comfortable. In Russell’s only playoff series, he averaged 36% on FGs and 32% from 3, not good. Russell did get the opportunity to be the number 1 option with Brooklyn, and ran the second most pick and rolls in the league in his All-Star year, but only managed 0.89 PPP, 67.2 percentile. Russell was better with his scoring efficiency on drives, 50.7% which was 21st best. Russell wasn’t that good but still got the opportunity by being in the weaker Eastern conference on an average team.

Andrew Wiggins

Wiggins hasn’t complimented KAT well as mentioned before, but got a slightly bigger role with much more usage and some PG duties. Wiggins finished the year at 0.86 PPP as a pick and roll ball handler at 36.4% frequency, and 55th percentile. Not great, but not that far from Russell either. However the pick and roll with KAT didn’t workout, because KAT popped for 3 instead of rolled most of the time, forcing Wiggins to score without a roll man. 

You would think that having KAT stay back on the perimeter would pull out the big, but actually bigs would drop back to meet Wiggins at the basket, while Wiggins’ defender would switch onto KAT, making Wiggins’ job quite difficult finishing over bigs at the rim, while KAT is useless. Wiggins only scored 40% on those tough attempts over bigs, but for the year Wiggins still finished drives at 48.9% efficiency, 28th best, and 10 players better than Russell. From the 133 drives that Wiggins ran with KAT in the pick and roll, 99 times KAT popped for 3, 74% of the time.

Wiggins was efficient on drives, because KAT did roll to the basket sometimes in the pick and roll, 26% of the time. Bigs would be occupied with boxing out KAT so Wiggins got to make layups over smaller players, and converted those drives at 65% efficiency, but on much less volume, 34 times, since KAT mostly popped. And when a big contested Wiggins and didn’t box out KAT, KAT would get easy put backs fighting for offensive rebounds with smaller players. Also Wiggins is a quick leaper, often getting offensive rebounds on his own misses.  All this means that if KAT simply rolled more, Wiggins would be much more efficient. Still the issue with the fit is Wiggins assisted KAT as a roll man only a handful of times all season. Russell on the other hand assisted Jarrett Allen 105 times as a roll man.  All these assist numbers make it seem like Wiggins is a bad passer but the truth is KAT just didn’t roll enough, since he missed the opportunity to pass it to the best player. When KAT does roll it looks like a great fit. 

This was the only dunk the whole year from KAT assisted by Wiggins in the pick and roll, and its shocking that this play wasn’t emphasized more by the coaches. Based on https://runrepeat.com/82-stats-on-dunks-in-the-nba, Centers have increased their share in total dunks from 35% in 2001-02 to 48% in 2018-19, and that’s due to the 3 seconds rule in the restricted area that was introduced in 1998, which resulted in better spacing, allowing bigs to slip screens and freely cut for assisted dunks. The only other position that increased their dunks in that time frame are the PGs, since they typically get to drive to the basket. 

 Here is a list of the best pick and roll bigs and their statistics per NBA.com.

Player	FG% on cuts/alley oops	Cut attempts Total	Cuts per game
Karl-Anthony Towns	83%	29	0.83
Rudy Gobert	82%	201	3.2
Joel Embiid	69%	26	0.59
Nikola Jokic	83%	30	0.46
Anthony Davis	87%	111	2
Bam Adebayo	82%	114	1.75
Domantas Sabonis	81%	115	1.85
Giannis	83%	97	1.7
JaVale McGee	80%	79	1.3
Montrezl Harrell	83%	132	2.1
Steven Adams	85%	68	1.2
Dwight Powell	82%	85	2.13
Kristaps Porzingis	89%	47	0.92
Clint Capela	78%	150	3.85
Hassan Whiteside	85%	104	1.7
Jonas Valanciunas	80%	64	1.03
Jaren Jackson Jr	81%	47	0.87
Brandon Clarke	81%	94	1.88
Richaun Holmes	87%	70	1.8
Deandre Ayton	74%	100	3.33
Marquese Chriss	83%	96	1.63
Mitchell Robinson	85%	123	2.02
Gorgui Dieng	68%	28	0.48
Jarrett Allen	77%	174	2.72
LaMarcus Aldridge	83%	41	0.77
Jakob Poeltl	91%	35	0.6
Myles Turner	72%	25	0.45
Andre Drummond	80%	78	1.37
Tristan Thompson	75%	75	1.32
Christian Wood	89%	66	1.06
Zion Williamson	85%	55	2.9
Ben Simmons	79%	84	1.55
Serge Ibaka	82.50%	57	1.14
Rondea Hollis-Jefferson	55.55%	54	1.04

KAT is one of the least active cutting bigs and as the lone big man on the floor it hurts the team in the restricted area. The rolling/rim running big man might be viewed as a replaceable player due to lack of ball skills, but it’s the most efficient play type that also helps every perimeter player around them. Not only does the roll man help the ball handler with a driving lane with a screen, but also it forces taggers to leave shooters on the perimeter, allowing the ball handler to drive and kick to open 3 point shooters or the roll man. Without a rolling big, or a full time PG role, and poor perimeter shooters, Wiggins managed to average half the assists that Russell did. But with the much improved handles and elite athleticism Wiggins still managed to get to the basket and score well, which is essential for a PG. Wiggins simply improved his shot selection, attempted 30% of all his shots in the restricted area, over 3 times more than Russell’s attempts.

Analytics play a major role in today’s NBA, so 3 pointers are highly valued, but if KAT can manage to score as a roll man at 83% efficiency from 2 and 40% from 3, which play type is worth more? Definitely the 2 point play as a roll man. Basically Rosas has ignored the most efficient play type that would maximize KAT and Wiggins, but only tried to maximize KAT alone, which ruined the team. Even if Russell shoots his pull up 3s at 40% and KAT keeps shooting 40% on the pop, that’s still not better than Wiggins finishing his drives at 65% and KAT rolling to the basket at 83%.  3s are better than 2s but the math is still in favor of dominant stars that can score well at the basket, while having role players that can shoot wide open 3s to compliment them. Stars like Giannis, Lebron James, Luka Doncic, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook are great examples of stars that generate highly efficient plays at the basket, and as a result the Lakers, Bucks, and Mavericks lead the league in efficiency from the restricted area, and their win-loss records reflects that. The Mavs aren’t the best but they got the best offense ever. Like Wiggins, Giannis never typically drives to the basket with a roll man either, but Giannis is also half a foot taller and 40 pounds heavier so he still managed a 59.8% efficiency on drives, best in the league. Luka and Lebron used multiple roll man and generated the most assists to compliment their driving ability, 56.2% for Luka and 54.9% for Lebron on drives. And the Warriors with Klay and Steph have always been a top 5 in efficiency in the restricted area (not this year) because in Kerr’s motion offense there is always a big man cutting to the basket and scoring easily from the spacing and the attention required to guard Curry and Thompson. For the Timberwolves, Rosas can have cutters making plays off Russell and Towns too, but its harder for Josh Okogie and Jarrett Culver to be open on cuts if they don’t set screens and don’t shoot efficiently from 3. And Juancho Hernangomez and Malik Beasley are never going to be as efficient on cuts like the best above the rim players like Zion Williamson or most other bigs. The blue print is really pretty clear and Rosas is trying to recreate the wheel into something that doesn’t seem sustainably efficient.  The Brooklyn Nets last season with Russell were the 9th worst in the restricted area, even with Jarrett Allen and other players consistently cutting to the basket, and that’s because Russell himself didn’t drive to the basket that often. Russell average 12 drives per game, 25th most. When he did drive to the basket, his most frequent shot was the floater instead of the layup which avoids all contact with the defense, therefore free throw attempts didn’t happen. Andrew Wiggins on the other hand averaged 14.1 drives per game, 19th most, but wasn’t given complete control of the offense either or the opportunity. The problem was that Rosas used him strictly as a scorer and not a playmaker which had less to do with Wiggins and more with the offense designed by Rosas. 

Here is Wiggins using his speed and quick crossover to get around Kawhi Leonard who gets help from Harrell in the paint.  Instead of forcing the tough layup over two defenders, Wiggins makes the heads up play and finds the only open man, Jeff Teague. By design Robert Covington runs away from the corner 3, where he could’ve been open for an efficient shot, right up to Teague, bringing Paul George with him and turning Teague’s open 3 into not being open anymore. Meanwhile KAT is being guarded by smallest guy on the court, and instead of cutting to the basket off the Wiggins drive for a massive dunk that would get the crowd on their feet, he remains covered off ball. Somehow the Timberwolves managed to ruin all the spacing in a 5 out offense, bunching 3 players above the break, which allows a long wing like Paul George to defend multiple players by himself. Absolutely painful to watch! Wiggins literally beat one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA by himself without a screen, got another defender to help, meaning there is a Wolf standing by himself with no defender guarding him, and still no one cut to the basket for an easy 2 points. This is simply a strategic failure that happened on repeat around Andrew Wiggins and the Timberswolves. Wiggins was literally asked to attack and score without a roll man or cutters assisting him inside, while not having any open corner shooters on the perimeter, and still scored efficiently on his drives to the basket. Luka Doncic is elite at scoring at the basket on drives, but Carlyle set him up with a perfect system with multiple roll man, elite shooters from the corners, and even a pick and pop big in Porzingis. The Wolves actually had an athletic freak in the mold of Powell in Jordan Bell, but he didn’t get playing time because who knows why. 

Not saying Wiggins is Doncic, but Wiggins has always been good at getting to the basket.  In his rookie year, Wiggins’ efficiency on drives to the basket was 70% on 132 attempts, and a couple years later it was 68% on 232 attempts. Drive FG% on NBA.com will tell you differently because that also accounts for midrange shots on drives. The fact that he played a lot in the post, working on the Kobe (RIP) dream shake turnaround fade away jumpers, many long 2 point jumpers was a coaching decision and not what Wiggins decided he wanted to do.  Andrew Wiggins has proved that he is coachable and drastically changed his shot selection from previous years, and from what I’ve seen, Wiggins could play much like Doncic does in a PG role.  Where Wiggins really excelled this year is beating his man in isolation using his unmatched mix of strength, quickness, and ball handling skills. Wiggins’ best finishes at the basket happened without a screen, and finished at 70% on 50 drives. 

First of all, Wiggins is really good in transition offense, something Luka Doncic isn’t known for. Wiggins has the athleticism and creates efficient offense quickly, and matched up with good defenders and really athletic wings in Josh Okogie and Jarrett Culver, and great rim protection and we would watch a version of the Toronto Raptors, a team that relies on defense and scoring in transition. Unfortunately for the Wolves, the defense was bad once again so Wiggins wasn’t that noticeable in transition.

In the half court with so many small guards or combo guards that can’t defend at all like D’Angelo Russell, Wiggins can easily hunt those matchups and drive into a post up against them and dominate. Dejounte Murray isn’t even considered a bad defender. Wiggins is just too big and strong for him to handle by himself.  These post ups would force double teams to come which would give Wiggins lots of playmaking opportunities to pass to the open man.  Typically post up plays are considered inefficient, but that’s more in regards to bigs since roll man are so much more efficient, and the way Wiggins does it is off a drive with pace, so help defenders can’t react that quickly. KAT, obviously is really good in the post too, but KAT needs to receive a pass into a post up, which takes much longer time to develop so double teams can come quickly.  Then with KAT being such a good spot up shooter that can take the big man out of the paint, nothing makes more sense than posting up Wiggins to pass to KAT if the big is helping out in the paint. Wiggins’ efficiency in the post up is 57.7% (69.7 percentile) and KATs’ is 51.8% (58.7 percentile), so it makes even more sense to post up Wiggins and have KAT clear out the big.  And all that considered Rosas allowed KAT five times more post touches than Wiggins. Instead of getting KAT to score on the interior as a roll man, 83% efficiency, KAT exclusively scored his 2 point field goals in the post or on drives.  The post up itself is a play where you want to take advantage of the physical matchup, and KAT at 6’11” is not the biggest Center in the league so most of the time he has no advantage, where Wiggins at 6’7” towers over every Guard in the league therefore KAT getting all the post touches made no sense at all. 

Another small player that Wiggins dominates is the small ball Center, being the Wiggins has the length of small ball Center himself, its way too easy for Wiggins to finish at the basket on drives with the small ball Centers dropping back to meet him at the basket. Not only can he beat them with athleticism but also with physicality, by driving them backwards with his body to create space under the rim, something that Doncic does all the time. This would’ve been a significant strategic advantage where the Wolves could force other teams to play bigger and therefore beat them with pace. One of the most painful games to watch was December 1st, when the Wolves lost to the Grizzlies at home. Without Valancunas and Jeran Jackson Jr fouling out in 19 minutes, the Grizzlies closed out with Bruno Caboclo at Center. Instead of rolling to the basket and punishing the small lineup, KAT continuously shot 3s, and finished 1 for 10. You know what Jimmy Butler would say about that, SOFT, I CAN’T PLAY LIKE THAT. When the Wolves made the playoffs with Butler, the Wolves were 4th best in efficiency in the restricted area. 

Oh my goodness, Wiggins makes NBA players look silly. Wiggins is quick enough to get into the paint any time he wants, and generates a lot of drive and kick opportunities, which is basically the key to generate efficient offense in a 5 out system. The fact that Rosas never even tried to design an offense that maximizes Wiggins is a head scratcher, because Wiggins is capable making any pass if he was allowed to instead of just driving to score. When Jeff Teague vouched for Wiggins to start in his spot in spite of his own benching, it didn’t last long before Shabazz Napier started and played on ball most of the time.  The truth is Wiggins is much more impactful on ball than off ball, which the Wolves forced him to be for his whole NBA career, and it all makes sense looking at his shooting numbers.

Andrew Wiggins
Year	Pull ups (2s)	Pull ups (3s)	Step backs (2s)	Step backs (3s)	Jump shots (2s)	Jump shots (3s)
19/20	41.6% 48 attempts	46.7% 45 attempts	34.6% 52 attempts	33.3% 30 attempts	7.5% 40 attempts	30.8% 247 attempts
18/19	34% 151 attempts	36.7% 49 attempts	43.5% 62 attempts	66.6% 6 attempts	19.7% 71 attempts	31.7% 281 attempts
17/18	37% 161 attempts	33.3% 24 attempts	33.3% 27 attempts	33.3% 3 attempts	31% 151 attempts	32.8% 308 attempts
16/17	43.5% 216 attempts	61.9% 21 attempts	44% 27 attempts	80% 5 attempts	23.9% 318 attempts	32.7% 260 attempts
15/16	48% 128 attempts	50% 4 attempts	46% 26 attempts	66.6% 3 attempts	26.6% 338 attempts	28.7% 181 attempts
14/15	42% 19 attempts	20% 5 attempts	40.5% 37 attempts	0% 3 attempts	30% 421 attempts	32.5% 117 attempts

Every year Andrew Wiggins has shown to be better on pull ups and step backs than off ball jumpers, but the volume of off ball jumpers always kept his percentages down. I know this is confusing because under tracking shot dashboard on NBA.com, its says Wiggins is a 35.2% shooter on catch and shoot, and 32% on pull ups and that’s true.  However on under shooting splits on NBA.com, there is visual evidence of every shot and that’s where I pulled the numbers from by each category. From the 21 pull up 3s that Wiggins made, its clearly shows how Wiggins made them all off the dribble, and a lot of them in the pick and roll when the defender went under the screen, or when switched onto a big man who didn’t quite come up to contest his shot. So even though Wiggins scored at around a 40% efficiency in the pick and roll on drives, and averaged half the assists of Russell’s, the 46.7% on pull up 3s really helped Wiggins get to a similar level to Russell as a pick and roll ball handler. 

The biggest reason for Wiggins success on ball is he is much better at creating space off the dribble and he is just a very coordinated athlete that can rise up on balance and just generally has better rhythm off the bounce, and the fact that his shot release isn’t very quick, creating space is key for his success.  Wiggins is such a dangerous slasher that defenders have to give him space when he dribbles, especially when he has the ball crossing the half court moving with speed in transition. Then when the big hedges to take a way his pull-up 3, Wiggins is quick enough to split the double team and get to the basket.

Even a help defender like Pascal Siakam couldn’t stop Wiggins from scoring. Wiggins has the skills to be a PG, being a good pull up shooter and capable of getting to the basket and collapsing the defense any time. And that’s the kind of 3 level scorer that really makes a difference, elite at the basket and good behind the arc to keep the defense honest. Not elite from the midrange and good behind the arc like Russell. Looking at Luka Doncic’ shooting numbers, 32.9% on pull up 3s on 73 attempts, 34.7% on step backs on 236 attempts, and 26.5% on jump shots on 170 attempts, and we can see that Wiggins is actually a better shooter than Doncic. Looking at tracking shot dashboard on NBA.com, Luka shot the ball at 20% efficiency from 3 on open 3 point shots when closest defender was 4 to 6 feet away. Wiggins made the same shots at 29.5% efficiency. On wide open shots, Wiggins made 38.4% of his spot up 3s. This is an easy fix and just a matter of shot selection for Wiggins. By eliminating the contested spot up 3s, and simply using a pump fake and drive to attack the closeouts, Wiggins would increase his drives to the basket and raise his 3 point efficiency closer to 40%. This is a simple coaching fix that could be implemented in the film room. But the Wolves coaches believe that even contested 3 point shots are great shots.

And that’s how you turn a good shooter into an average shooter.

Rick Carlye and his staff recognized early how to help Doncic succeed, even though he is 6’7” and looks like a SF. Also Luka Doncic was 4th in the league in the amount of drives to the basket being primarily on ball, and Wiggins ended up 19th most frequent driver and could’ve got more if he only had the opportunity and a great coach. And Doncic is just as bad from the midrange as Wiggins is but rarely shoots it from there since he is elite at the rim and has lots of passing options getting there. Unfortunately for Wiggins, he didn’t have Rick Carlyle as a coach. Much like Doncic, Wiggins is the most difficult to guard on the perimeter, and should’ve been used more as a playmaker, and that’s again a missed opportunity because Wiggins got all the passing skills, he just hardly ever got to do it since the Wolves used a PG by committee approach.  Andrew Wiggins is great at reading pick and rolls, hits the roll man with timely passes, and when the defense loads up on him inside, he is excellent at kicking it out to the open shooters, without being turnover prone. 

And as we’ve seen with Luka and Lebron this year, it helps being tall as a passer, when you can see and elevate over the top of the defense any time and its not necessary to find the passing windows especially for those far passes to open shooters in the corners. As bad as the Wolves collectively shot the 3 ball, it wasn’t because the players couldn’t shoot, it was because the shots were very difficult, contested above the break 3s.  For example, Josh Okogie took 106 shots above the break at 23.6%, while shooting 40% from the left corner on only 20 attempts. Thats a small sample, but similar story with Robert Covington, who took 364 shots from above the break at 34.9%, and shot 43.3% from the right corner on 30 attempts. Even Treveon Graham shot 33.3% from the corner. This was the most low key tank job I’ve ever witnessed.  Instead of focusing on KAT shooting as many above the break 3s as possible, Rosas should’ve used KAT to create 2 on 1 advantages with Wiggins in the pick and roll, and compliment Wiggins for his elite slashing skill. 

Here is lob to KAT from Wiggins on a side pick and roll that was executed to perfection 3 years ago even though the spacing was atrocious, so its not a matter of questionable talent, its just questionable play calling. KAT isn’t as athletic as some the springiest bigs that catch a lot of ally oops, but he could do a lot of damage in the short roll like Domantas Sabonis or Nikola Jokic, who often finds cutters and shooters off the short roll. Also both KAT and Wiggins are excellent offensive rebounders and would get a lot of put backs on misses from either one.  Wiggins is a strong driver that often times rejects the screen, so if KAT just slipped the screen every time instead of setting the screen and being late on the roll, it would’ve been much more effective. The KAT and Wiggins pick and roll could’ve been elite, because KAT can shoot the 3 so the screens can be high above the top of the key, so the pocket passing window on the short roll to KAT is massive, and whether the defender goes over the screen or under, Wiggins can easily get to the basket regardless.

Normally good PGs pull up for 3s when defenders go under the screen and drive when defenders go over, but with Wiggins the guide lines don’t matter. Donovan Mitchell is built like an NFL strong safety, but Wiggins is driving with so much force that he just bounces off and looks weak.  And that’s what it typically looks like with most defenders that are trying to guard Wiggins that are smaller.  Most NBA players in the backcourt are between 6’1” and 6’5” and Wiggins can easily man handle these guys on drives or in the post.  Then when when the defense sells out to protect the basket like in this previous clip, KAT can pop for 3s, and knock them down efficiently as we all know. The biggest key was just to get KAT and Wiggins on the same page, running the pick and rolls in training camp and preseason but that was never intended and once again a missed opportunity. Another way that Wiggins could’ve assisted KAT as a roll man was simply get to the basket and let KAT follow him close behind, and since Wiggins can literally twirl in the air 3 times before landing back on the ground…

he could do half a twirl, pass it back to KAT and let KAT dunk the ball while Wiggins clears the big man or whoever is contesting him at the basket. The creativity with this duo is endless and they could’ve wrecked the rims on a nightly basis, and also led to a lot of wide open 3 point shots for their role players, which would’ve led to way better than the worst 3 point shooting percentage in the league.

According to this article on NBA.com, Wiggins has become one of the most clutch players in the NBA, ranking at 30, and D’Angelo Russell isn’t on the list.

Here is Wiggins shooting a clutch step back 3 on Harrell and then without celebrating runs back to guard Paul George’s pull up 3, which leads us to talk about defense, making this trade even more ridiculous. D’Angelo Russell is right next to Trea Young and Lou Williams as one of the worst defenders in the NBA.  Young is on a losing team and the Clippers have the common sense to play Williams off the bench in a 6th man role.  Russell is just too slow laterally to defend any NBA athlete that can dribble and he is too small/weak to defend PFs like Harden. And looking at Harden’s development it’s unlikely that Russell will improve much laterally in his later years. In the regular season, the Wolves might get away by hiding Russell especially against bad teams, but in the playoffs (Playoffs?) when teams scheme and hunt mismatches, it’s going to be easy to switch onto Russell in isolation. And then you can also attack Russell and KAT in the pick and roll, if KAT actually remains a Center and rim protector. Check out my other article for the reason to switch KAT to PF https://howlinghoops.com/how-does-karl-anthony-towns-look-on-a-championship-contender/.

Andrew Wiggins on the other hand can literally guard anyone on ball, especially now that he is about to surpass 200 pounds. The secret behind Wiggins’ on ball defense is his lateral quickness , ridiculous strength for his light weight, and 8’11” standing reach per Chad Ford.  That standing reach is just 2” shy of Karl-Anthony Towns’ and on par with defenders like Pascal Siakam and Jayson Tatum.  Here is an interesting article from the playgrounder.com stating how Wiggins is in the 91st percentile in Regularized Adjusted Deterrence (RAD) which is a statistic measuring rim protection. I don’t think Wiggins would be a good rim protector because big guys can easily move him under the basket fighting for rebounds, but when Wiggins guards big guys in the post and got his arm bar on their back, he is really hard to move and becomes a major deterrent with his long arms and quick twitch leaping ability. 

Andrew Wiggins could play some PF minutes and he could play in all kinds of lineups, big or small, and be an interchangeable piece all over the floor, and that’s something where a coach could really take advantage of.  By switching your players defensively often, a PG or initiator can’t get comfortable, because its always someone else defending him and it becomes a mental battle with all the scouting reports and knowing everyone’s tendencies on every part of the floor, and thats when unforced errors can often occur. The Warriors are going to use him in all kinds of creative ways with their switching schemes, and then as a PF in their small ball Death lineup with Draymond Green at Center. Sadly the Timberwolves who already have great point of attack defenders in Josh Okogie and Jarrett Culver, are now forced to defend SF’s but with Culver’s 8’4.25 standing reach, and Okogie’s 8’6” standing reach, they don’t have the tools to be in position to succeed versus the biggest wings like Paul George, who is 6’9”, or Kevin Durant, can shoot over anyone, except a guy like Wiggins. And now Jordan McLaughlin, who is now the best slasher on the team, might be forced into a lot of playing time. Jordan might be a feisty defender but being under 6’ its not realistic for him to be a plus defender, adding to the problem of other non defenders in the lineup. 

The Timberwolves had a great foundation for a great defense with Josh Okogie and Jarrett Culver being great at the point of attack, overwhelming lead Guards with their length and lateral quickness. The problem was with KAT, getting lost in ball screens. KAT can’t defend 2 on 1 in the pick and roll, and his biggest issue is him chasing blocks instead of paying attention to his own man, the screener.

Here is Tyus Jones being defended by Wiggins on a ball screen, where KAT cheats towards Jones to help Wiggins instead of staying on JJJ to take away the pass to defend the roll. This is a perfect example of KAT simply not trusting his teammates and not doing his job. If KAT took away the roll, the likelihood of Jones attempting a layup over Wiggins chasing him from behind is very low. Knowing Tyus Jones, he would avoid making the tough layup attempt and look for another passing option.

Then again, KAT is ball watching and losing his man on the pick and pop, even though Wiggins was in perfect position to defend Jones. If KAT simply did his job and defended his own man, boxed out the roll man primarily, saved his energy from chasing blocks, this defense would be really good. It would force ball handlers to drive and finish themselves versus really athletic wings like Okogie, Culver, Wiggins, Layman, and Beasley. Robert Covington would’ve been good too.

D’Angelo Russell isn’t going to chase down many blocks with his below average athleticism, so its not going to work with KAT and Russell defending pick and rolls. We’ve seen KAT playing in drop coverage and be bad at it for 5 years. Deandre Ayton became a good defender in a season and a half. It doesn’t take that long to figure it out. At some point the way KAT needs to play has to change. KAT is huge and shouldn’t have a problem boxing out bigs if that was his only job in the pick and roll. And KAT is also a great rebounder so once Okogie blocks whoever, KAT is there for the rebound instead of out of the play chasing a block. Thats basically how 6’5″ center, PJ Tucker, defends. All Tucker does is keep his wide body between the basket and the big, impeding them on the roll or offensive rebounds.

The way I see the NBA, the Guards that can’t defend are less valuable, because there are so many wings that can initiate the offense and defend. And not even wings, bigs are initiating offense now, and the ball doesn’t stick to one guy anymore. 3&D guys have to be able to read the floor, dribble, pass and shoot.  Malcolm Brogdon, who was a 3&D player in Milwaukee is now a PG for Indiana. The player that helped Brogdon the most was Domantas Sabonis (All-Star) as a roll man. If KAT only played like a Center instead of a 7′ Shooting Guard, this team would’ve been really good. The only small guards that are plus defenders are Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul and that’s because those two are really strong, smart, and really crazy, especially Lowry who takes multiple charges a game and throws his body around the basket like a rim protector. And speaking of Lowry, Toronto scored over 30 points in transition against the Wolves in their last game because of their defense. Great defenses switch a lot and having a player like Wiggins, who can switch onto anyone, instead of Russell would be more beneficial. 

This trade looks like a win-win on paper but in reality the Wolves got themselves a great 6th man, and the Warriors got a two way player and jumbo initiator in a position that every team desperately needs.  For the Warriors this is the rich get richer phenomena.  Wiggins can easily fit their motion offense and defense.  And the Warriors never ran a lot pick and rolls but now with Wiggins, they can easily add that wrinkle into their offense.  Wiggins with a roll man like Marquese Chriss attacking down the middle, while Curry and Thompson are shooting from the corners. 

Did the Wolves ever have a lob target for Wiggins? Without training camp or much practice, Wiggins is already getting assists. When the average good team gets their corner 3 point shooters to average 40%, for Steph and Klay the challenge will be to average 50%. Teams will literally have to choose to stay home on the best shooters in the NBA and let Wiggins and the roll man score, or build a wall with taggers and let the best shooters in the league take the easiest 3 point shots.  The Warriors never had a wing that attacked the restricted area like Wiggins. Not Kevin Durant. Not Andre Iguodala. Not Harrison Barnes. Now the Warriors have a wing that can create even more space for the Curry and Thompson. Andrew Wiggins brings that key star ingredient without the star drama which Kerr will appreciate a lot. For the Warriors, another reason this trade makes perfect sense is Curry’s health.

Andrew Wiggins is an iron man, has averaged some of the highest minutes played in the regular season this past 6 years, yet somehow missed only 10 games, and most of those due to the flu and his grandmother’s funeral. Moving forward, Andrew Wiggins will handle the physicality near the basket while Curry can do what he does best, by running off screens and shooting the ball, making plays from the perimeter and limiting his contact, which will allow him to age gracefully like JJ Reddick and Kyle Korver. Curry could play that way for another decade into his 40s. 

I just think that Rosas should’ve bet on better coaching, and player development, and the right schemes that maximize his players, but instead Rosas is betting on injury replacement All-Star accolades of a “proven PG” that could fit his scheme instead. Rosas showed his cards early for his desire for Russell and he paid a premium for it. Just by looking at the numbers since the trade deadline, the Warriors finished the year as the second best team in efficiency in the restricted area, right behind Utah, followed by the Lakers, Mavericks, and Nuggets. In the same time frame, the Timberwolves finished 10th worst in efficiency in the restricted area.  Before the trade, the Warriors were 6th worst in efficiency from the restricted area. The Timberwolves won 3 games with Russell because of their improved 3 point percentage as a team, and it wasn’t even because of Russell. Russell was a below average 3 point shooter with the Wolves, at 34.5%. The Warriors won 3 games even though they had the worst 3 point shooting in the NBA, but that will easily get fixed when Steph and Klay return. Wiggins was clearly a difference maker for them in the restricted area. There is not a lot of players built like Andrew Wiggins that will bring that kind of slashing and playmaking ability.  Players with such skills and physical tools get drafted first overall, and good pull up shooters that don’t defend well can be found in the second round of the draft. Players such as Grant Riller, Cassius Winston, Payton Pritchard, and Malachi Flynn are all great pull up shooters that are projected to go in the second round this year, per tankathon.com. Pull up shooting will keep a defense honest, and Wiggins’ 46% on pull up 3s would do that too. My final take is the Warriors stole a sleeping giant that will easily become an All-Star, and the Wolves got themselves a great 6th man on a max contract.  This trade might be the worst trade in Timberwolves history.  Obviously the KG trade was worse since KG won a championship with Boston, but atleast the Wolves had him through his prime years and received assets in return.  Andrew Wiggins is just entering his prime and is going to be so much better. The handles will only get tighter. He will get smarter with his shot selection. His body is going to get even stronger and the weight higher. Wiggins was a 180 pounds as a rookie. Rosas just gifted a generational talent to a team that called themselves the best ever in history. Also next year’s draft class in 2021 is scary good. Its full of freaky athletic two-way Jumbo initiators, just like Wiggins and the Wolves are getting no piece of it.

This is like the Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons situation, where its not working and a trade needs to happen, but at least the Sixers gave it a shot by playing Simmons at PG. The sad part is the Timberwolves didn’t even try to make it work, even though Wiggins is a good and willing shooter in the pick and roll, and KAT is much more agile than Embiid as a roll man. I’m betting on the Warriors winning this trade, even though I’m just a biased Timberwolves fan.