What should the Minnesota Timberwolves do with the first pick in the 2020 NBA Draft?

The Minnesota Timberwolves got lucky in the draft lottery for the first time in franchise history. This is a perfect opportunity for Gersson Rosas to draft the best player, and the best fit for the Timberwolves. Without a consensus number one draft pick, most experts believe that the Wolves will be in position to trade for a third star. Unfortunately it’s unlikely that Devin Booker or any other star will be traded for the top pick, and historically only good role players get traded for the top pick, like Kevin Love. Assuming Rosas will draft instead of trade for an expensive role player, the Timberwolves should select 7’1″ Center, James Wiseman.

James Wiseman might not be viewed as a star or someone with the most upside to become a star, but the Timberwolves already have their stars, in D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns. What this team needs is a high level role player that could fit with the mentioned stars. Yes, Wiseman and KAT fit together even though they play the same position, because KAT is that versatile and best on the perimeter. KAT is best when used on the perimeter in dribble hand offs, where he can be a threat to shoot, pass, or drive to the basket. That leaves Wiseman spacing out in the dunker’s spot or in the corner 3.

James Wiseman can catch lobs from a stand still position in the dunkers spot, and such rim gravity would be a nightmare to stop with all the 3 point gravity in Russell, KAT, Beasley, and Hernangomez. Wiseman would become every perimeter players best friend when they drive to the basket and be able to dish to him for an easy dunk instead of try to finish at the rim themselves.

D’Angelo Russell was acquired as a high frequency pick and roll ball handler, however with KAT not being a great compliment as a roll man (48.8 percentile as roll man per NBA.com), where James Wiseman would be a perfect fit with Russell.

James Wiseman is an athletic freak with ridiculous length and would be even better for Russell than Jarrett Allen (88.5 percentile per NBA.com) was. Rolling to the rim is a skill that could be improved on, but is best used for really athletic bigs like Anthony Davis or Bam Adebayo or James Wiseman. Being a good roll man is about setting great screens but most importantly timing the roll, and finally just having the leaping ability, great hands, and massive catch radius. An analogy since its football season, we can use the comparison of a Quarterback being the pick and roll ball handler, and the Wide Receiver being the roll man. One way to help your Point Guard or Quarterback is to get them a better Receiver or roll man. LeBron James averaged the most assists in the regular season but you can’t tell me that Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee, and Dwight Howard had nothing to do with that. KAT isn’t that athletic but he makes up for it with perimeter skills. This past season KAT was 97th percentile as a pick and roll ball handler, KAT could be unleashed with Wiseman screening and rolling for him. KAT is also 94.2 percentile as a spot up shooter, 94.6 percentile off screens, and 91.1 percentile in isolation. Clearly KAT’s biggest upside is to be a perimeter player as a stretch PF.

Defensively, with D’Angelo Russell needed to be hidden on the 4th/5th options off ball, KAT could also be hidden on the 4th/5th option. This would allow KAT to save his energy for offense and also hide Russell defensively even further. Teams might want to force a switch and attack KAT in isolation instead of Russell, which is a win for the Timberwolves since KAT is a better defender on the perimeter than Russell. Then with KAT and Russell defending the off ball players on the perimeter, James Wiseman would fit as the rim protector in drop coverage, upgrading the defense by moving KAT to the perimeter.

James Wiseman is bigger, longer, and more mobile than KAT and would be an instant upgrade as a rim protector. And with more size, the Timberwolves would also become a much better rebounding team. The Wolves were below average on the defensive glass with KAT as the lone big this past season.

James Wiseman can sink his hips, has a wide base, and easily moves laterally. He plays to the level of the screener in the pick and roll, helps his teammate on the ball handler but still recovers to his own man. He can also easily run shooters off the 3 point line with his length and mobility. It does appear that some ball handlers beat Wiseman to the rim, but with his 7′ 6″ wingspan, and quick leaping ability, he has the length to recover for chase down blocks. For a rim protector with his size (9’6″ standing reach per NBA.com), its almost beneficial for him to play aggressively and bate smalls to drive to the rim and find no day light. One thing to pay attention to in Wiseman’s film is how often ball handlers will drive into the paint, see Wiseman, and back out for a fade-away midrange jumper or just defer to a teammate. Wiseman is the kind of big that forces teams to take terrible shots simply by being there.

Arguably the most underrated Center in the league, Rudy Gobert, has proven that size and length, and the mobility to contest every shot on the defensive end is a great formula. Looking at the Jazz’ perimeter defenders and its clear that Gobert is the only defender on that team. If Gobert was on the Heat instead of Adebayo, no one would ever think that Okongwu is a better option than Wiseman. Gobert by himself has made the Jazz defense above average, and the Jazz is tied with the Heat in defensive rating for the regular season, even though the Heat has much better perimeter defenders and play in a weaker Eastern conference. Since D’Angelo Russell is a bad perimeter defender, the Wolves need an elite rim protector in the mold of Gobert, so that Russell can just funnel drives towards the rim protector, much like the Jazz often do for Gobert.

Historically playing another big with KAT has been a problem in transition, but with Wiseman capable of running the floor like Anthony Davis, that’s not an issue.

James Wiseman’s speed in transition is the biggest reason this two bigs lineup would work, since KAT often struggles in this department. Wiseman can easily fit as a rim runner, beat other bigs for easy transition buckets, while KAT can trail for transition 3s. And defensively Wiseman is fast enough to stop other teams from scoring easily in transition.

James Wiseman would bring the interior presence as rim runner, a roll man, and a dunker, which would improve the team’s efficiency in the restricted area. The Timberwolves finished 8th worst in efficiency in the restricted area this past season. The best part is Wiseman can do all that without needing to be a shooter. Shooting is easily that hardest part for rookies to figure out in the NBA and Wiseman can take his time with that skill set, because as a Center he doesn’t need to shoot. However looking at his small sample size of shots, it looks like he isn’t shy about shooting and seems to have the confidence to take tough shots. His shooting mechanics look smooth and I’m very confident that he can easily space the floor and take wide open corner 3s in his rookie year. Moving forward a couple years Wiseman can increase his shooting range to above the break. Then the Timberwolves would have two bigs in their starting lineup that can pick and roll or pop.

While James Wiseman and D’Angelo Russell can attack in the pick and roll, KAT and Malik Beasley would be elite off ball. KAT can set excellent screens for Beasley moving off ball for open shots, while KAT would also be available for a spot up or a cut to the basket. For a great passing PG like Russell that would be a dream scenario, where he could probe the paint and have excellent passing options in all directions. Then if not to pass, Russell could easily score at the rim, hit a floater, or the midrange. With Wiseman’s rim gravity and endless catch radius, teams will have to account for him with one or two defenders, allowing Russell big driving lanes and wide open shooters beyond the arc.

For KAT, he would finally get some rest on defense, so he could truly become a star and have the energy to take the most shots on the team. No other star in the league is completely responsible for rim protection and KAT shouldn’t be either.

For Gersson Rosas, this draft is crucial to get right. Most mock for the Wolves to take Edwards or Ball but that would be a lateral move. Edwards and Ball would take years to develop their shooting, shot selection, and defense, and therefore wouldn’t bring much to a winning record in their first contract. For Ball, it will take years to build up his strength and muscle mass to compete at a high level. And for Edwards, it will take years to develop his passing and decision making especially if he mostly plays off ball. KAT and Russell are not going to wait for a rookie to develop and need to win now to be happy in Minnesota. James Wiseman is the only rookie that is ready to contribute now, and is really the missing ingredient for the Wolves to be a winning team.

There is a lot of value placed on perimeter players and much less on bigs with the popularity of small ball lineups. The truth is that there is just not many bigs that can protect the rim, move their feet on the perimeter, screen and roll, and space the floor offensively. Deandre Ayton or Anthony Davis might be the best of the bunch if you value defense more from your big man. The Pheonix Suns have been criticized for select Ayton over Doncic in the draft, and rightfully so, but looking at Ayton’s improvement and their undefeated record in the bubble and it looks like the Suns have a bright future. Wiseman can become the next Ayton. He moves just as fluidly, might be even longer than Ayton, and his shooting form is better. Ayton’s shot is flat, where Wiseman has better arc on his shot so I can see him shooting better from beyond the arc. Ayton might be bigger and stronger with more polished post skills, but the post up is becoming less valuable in the NBA so it doesn’t matter. James Wiseman just two years ago was listed at 6’11” and 210 pounds as a senior in high school, so this is a late bloomer who put on close to 40 pounds and still growing. A lot of scouts question if Wiseman can become a good shooter by his statistics in high school but that’s just garbage analysis. Shooting is all about form and then muscle memory, but when your muscles are constantly growing, your center of gravity is changing, your body has no chance of remembering anything. No rookie big man has ever been a great shooter, not even KAT or Dirk Nowitzki. We have to wait for these guys to mature physically first. Looking at Wiseman, and it looks like he could easily put on another 20 pounds of muscle on his upper body. Just look at Dwight Howard’s pictures in his rookie year versus the boulder shoulders he has now. James Wiseman is going to be 270 pounds monster.

Then you look at Wiseman’s agility at 7’1″, the fact that he can dribble and take it coast to coast like Giannis. And then he also has a quick crossover with spin moves on his drives to the basket like he is Andrew Wiggins. James Wiseman has all the makings of a Unicorn and could be one of the best bigs in the league on both ends of the floor, which can only lead to winning, and something the Timberwolves desperately need.