2021 Season Recap
The Milwaukee Bucks are NBA champions in 2021. How they did it was pretty interesting. The Bucks shot 32% from 3 in the playoffs, which is the worst since the 2004 NBA champs, Detroit Pistons. The unprecedented part about it is that in 2021 teams value the 3 point shot much more than in 2004. The Jazz attempted the most 3s this year and attempted over one thousand more attempts than the Supersonics, who made it rain in 2004. Three is more than two and it certainly worked for the Utah Jazz in the regular season, who attempted the most 3s, almost half of their shot attempts, and clinched the first seed in the playoffs. How the Bucks did it which bucked the trend is establish a lineup of defenders across all five positions.
By playing a full lineup of defenders especially with Giannis playing Center in closing minutes, the Bucks were able to switch everything, leaving their defenders on an island and forcing the ball handlers, primarily Devin Booker and Chris Paul into tough contested midrange shots. Since Giannis doesn’t require any help defending on the perimeter, the rest of the Bucks’ defenders were able to sit on the passing lanes and force Booker or Paul to look for their own shot. Then because Booker and Paul had to live with tough midrange shots, it didn’t even matter that the Bucks offense was inefficient from the 3 point line. The Bucks won by simply creating more possessions for themselves by winning the turnover battle and getting second chance points with offensive rebounds. Normally PJ Tucker doesn’t require any attention from a great defender so the Suns tried to hide Booker or Paul on him. However because Tucker is built like a middle linebacker at 6’5″ and 245 pounds, it was an impossible task for those guys to box him off the offensive glass. At one point during game 4 in the middle of the 4th quarter, Booker tried to box out Tucker, but instead committed his fifth foul, so he had to sit on the bench at a crucial time when he was on fire offensively. The Bucks proved that they can win with physicality while most of the rest of the league is getting by with finesse shot makers and team defense. Yet team defense is not a successful strategy in the playoffs as the Utah Jazz proved to have. When you constantly need to use a rim protector to help stop dribble penetration, while leaving wide open shooters on the 3 point line, as we’ve watched, it’s incredibly hard to win that way. Instead the Bucks play with multiple switchable defenders and never over help which leads to no open shooters for the ball handler to pass to, therefore requires the ball handler to isolate and force a tough contested shot. There are way too many shooters on cheap contracts that you can’t leave wide open without paying for it, like Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, or Cam Johnson. The only chance you have is to not leave them wide open, and guard the pick and rolls with only the amount of players that are involved offensively. Meaning if two offensive players are running a pick and roll while the other 3 are spotted on the perimeter, you have to guard the pick and roll with 2 players like the Bucks do, and not over help.
The NBA has become a pick and roll league because most good teams have perimeter defenders that can defend 1 on 1, slide their feet, absorb contact, and contest a shot. For any point guard playing 1 on 1 is a physically tough challenge that leads to a low percentage shot. Instead what most teams do is run a pick and roll, where the on ball defender gets screened by a big man, so the point guard gets a switch onto the other teams’ big. Most bigs around the league are too slow to stay in front of most point guards around the league, so they have to give the ball handler some space, leaving them exposed to the pull up or step back 3. And if the bigs close out to take away the shot, then they expose themselves to getting blown by for the shot at the rim. This is how a lot of bigs get played off the floor in the playoffs and teams just choose to play another wing instead of any bigs, and just switch on every pick and roll. Playing all wings gives a team an advantage at the point of attack, but the team losses the advantage with rebounding and screen setting, and at times a great lob threat. We can probably count less than a handful of bigs that don’t get played off the floor in the playoffs. All of them have played in the last two years in the finals. Giannis, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo. Dandre Ayton has all the potential to be in this group, but not yet. I wasn’t impressed with him in the finals. I just think he should’ve met Giannis before he reached the paint on his drives. No one can stop Giannis at full speed in the paint, so it could’ve been just poor coaching and just the wrong instruction for Ayton to be dropped so deep in the paint. Ayton is also just 23 years old and is going to be a lot better on both ends. The Suns should be contending again thanks to Ayton’s massive improvement this year and to come. The common thing about all these bigs that are so valuable is that they are all PF/C hybrids. I believe Giannis, Davis, and Ayton all stated how they view themselves as power forwards. In reality they are all correct. If you can guard on the perimeter players of all sizes, and don’t get beat in transition, the PF position is perfect for this type of big. Karl-Anthony Towns is the most versatile offensive big man and could easily fit as a PF. The unfortunate situation for the Wolves is that Towns isn’t versatile enough defensively. Towns just needs to turn up his motor and play both ends. He looks like a guard offensively with his shooting and passing, but has to also extend that to the other end. If he works on his fitness this summer and the rumor is he is, it could be another Wolves team. If KAT is fit enough to play in a switch everything scheme, and I think that he is, that would be his best fit. (no pun intended)..I’ve seen plenty of flashes of KAT guarding everyone on the perimeter and it looked a lot better than KAT in drop coverage. KAT just needs to be prepared to work hard on both ends.
As much as pure scorers are celebrated with All-Star votes, two way players that can fit a role are much more valuable. Teams score more points than ever but thats because scoring in transition is as big of a priority as ever before. The Suns with Steve Nash were unique with the 7 seconds or less offense but now its what the NBA is about. The secret to scoring in transition is making defensive stops, rebounding, and sprinting in transition. The Bucks are one of the best teams in that category. In order to be great defensively and in transition, you need to have athletic two way players. Then when you have to score in the half court, it helps a lot when you can score inside and collapse the defense and thats a matter of size and athleticism. This year it was Giannis and before that it was Lebron that dominated the league. The small guys that shoot step backs and fade aways may look like a hooper, so a player that you want for your team, but at the end of the day they don’t win much. Damian Lillard and Brad Beal are a great example. And Ben Simmons has been such a great example of defense and transition scoring threat, that his asking price is similar to James Harden.
For the Timberwolves and Gersson Rosas, who is trying to build around KAT and a bunch of 6’4″ guards, its no surprise they finished 29th on defense. The one player that looks like a two way stud is 6’9″ Jaden McDaniels. McDaniels is the only one that cemented himself as a starting SF. Even for KAT its still a question mark on whether he is a PF or a Center. And no one knows how DLo, Ant, and Beasley fit into a starting lineup. Meanwhile the Warriors cashed in on the Wolves’ draft pick with a freaky two way wing prospect, Jonathan Kuminga, who might be the best comparison to Lebron James since every talented wing coming out in the draft has been compared to Lebron. At 6’8″ and 220 pounds at just 18 years old, this player has a ton of two way upside. Physically Kuminga reminds me a lot of Precious Achiuwa so the upside is that he could play all 5 positions. Then the Warriors double dipped on another wing with a 7’1 wingspan (Moses Moody) instead of a guard with the fourteenth pick. Then in free agency, Warriors add Otto Porter Jr, Nemanja Bjelica, and Andre Iguodala. Big wings that can rebound, space the floor, and defend multiple positions. The fact that the Warriors haven’t added a Guard in the off season means its going to be a big Andrew Wiggins season. Besides Green, Curry, and Poole, there are no other ball handlers so Wiggins is getting a lot of Point Guard work. The Warriors added size to help rebound since last year they were one of the worst defensive rebounding teams, and Wiggins was amazing as a point of attack defender. Wiggins at shooting guard makes a lot of sense. Without Kawhi in the mix, I’m predicting there is a great chance Andrew Wiggins could be selected to his first All-Star game in 2022. And for the Warriors with the 5th best defensive rating last season, added defensive rebounding help, adds even more room for improvement.
