How does Karl-Anthony Towns look on a championship contending Timberwolves team in 2020-2021? It’s hard to imagine the Wolves bouncing back within one year after winning 19 games in 2019/2020. With the current starting lineup with Towns, Russell, Beasley, Hernangomez, and Okogie it’s easy to imagine a great offense, but without the defense being fixed, a championship or even playoffs will not happen. The Western conference is a blood bath and next season it’s going to be even bloodier. The Warriors will be healthy. The Blazers will be healthy and retooled with a lottery pick. The Pelicans will have a more ready Zion Williamson. The Grizzlies are good and deep with talent. The Suns are not a joke anymore. On paper the Wolves are one of the worst teams in the West. However President of basketball operations, Gersson Rosas, has a plan. Rosas changed the offensive and defensive schemes to match his philosophy. Then traded most of the roster to bring in players that are more likely to succeed in his schemes. The final piece is to maximize Karl-Anthony Towns and win games.
Karl-Anthony Towns is an elite offensive talent but on defense he has been consistently ranked as one of the worst big man among his peers. However based on advanced stats per NBA.com, Towns has made an improvement since his rookie year. Filtered among other starting Centers per 36 minutes, Towns ranked 75th in his rookie year in defensive rating. Then improved to 60th in 2016/17. Then 56th in 2017/2018. Then 49th in 2018/2019. But then dipped to 62nd this past year. Defensive rating isn’t a perfect statistic to compare any given player to another, given that blocks and rebounds are calculated in the formula, its unreasonable to compare a Center to a PG or other perimeter defender. However comparing a Center to other Centers is reasonable because they have an equal chance to amass the same statistics. And given that Centers have the biggest responsibility as last line of defense, they provide the most value to overall team’s defense. Looking deeper into Towns’ struggles on defense, lets compare his physical profile to other bigs in the league:
Player | Height | Standing reach | Position |
Karl-Anthony Towns | 6’11 | 9’1 | Center |
Montrezl Harrell | 6’7 | 9’1 | Center/PF |
Myles Turner | 6’11 | 9’4 | Center |
Rudy Gobert | 7’1 | 9’7 | Center |
Joel Embiid | 7′ | 9’5.5 | Center |
Bam Adebayo | 6’9 | 9′ | PF |
Nikola Jokic | 7′ | 9’3 | Center |
Kristaps Porzinigis | 7’3 | 9’5~ | PF |
Anthony Davis | 6’10 | 9′ | PF |
Javale McGee | 7’1 | 9’6.5 | Center |
Brook Lopez | 7′ | 9’5 | Center |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 6’11 | ? | PF |
DeAndre Jordan | 6’11 | 9’5.5 | Center |
DeAndre Ayton | 7’1 | 9’3 | Center |
Hassan Whitside | 7′ | 9’5 | Center |
Lamarcus Aldridge | 6’11 | 9’2 | PF |
Steven Adams | 6’11 | 9’1.5 | Center |
Andre Drummond | 6’10 | 9’1.25 | Center |
Tacko Fall | 7’5 | 10’2.5 | Center |
Jonathan Isaac | 6’11 | 9’2 | PF |
Based on standing reach, Towns’ physical profile compares more to the best PFs and not Centers. With Towns physical profile of a PF as the lone big man, surrounded by wings and guards, it may explain the Wolves overall poor rebounding percentage as well. Although standing reach isn’t the lone metric that stands out for good rim protection, its a big factor, as well as a high motor, strength, defensive IQ/communication, and athleticism. All these defensive factors are hard to measure besides standing reach, but looking at the tape, it doesn’t seem that Towns is elite at any one of these factors.
As it looks in the video, even when Towns is in position to protect the rim, he lacks strength. Players can easily punish him in the chest as they lower their shoulder, move him backwards under the basket, and he lacks the length to recover to block the shot or be in position to contest the shot. Towns has been called soft, but it’s not a fair label since he is listed at 248 pounds and does the same job as Joel Embiid, who is 280 pounds. Being undersized and weaker takes a toll on Towns physically. When Towns isn’t in perfect position but still in the area, he lacks the athleticism to get vertical to contest shots at the rim. PJ Washington easily dunked in the open lane and Towns too often just watches it happen without even trying to protect the rim. And with turnstile perimeter defenders like D’Angelo Russell, there must be a springy rim protector that can help. Then in the pick and roll, Towns often sells out to defend the ball handler and never plays physically enough with the roll man to disrupt the timing of the roll. It’s likely that as Towns matures he will get stronger and become more physical in the future, but unlikely that he will ever be one of the strongest bigs. And with lack of length and springy athleticism it’s unlikely that he will be a great rim protector. Where Towns can make an immediate impact right now is as a perimeter defender.
Towns has good lateral quickness for a big man and right now on a winning team he would be much better utilized as the 4th perimeter defender. Most likely defending stretch PFs that are typically spotted up in the corner. But if switched on a smaller player, Towns is comfortable moving his feet even with PGs. With zone defense being used more this past year around the NBA, Towns would be a perfect fit in a 2-3 zone defense. Basically Towns would be zoned to the corner 3 where ball handlers have less space with the baseline to attack from the perimeter in isolation. And with Towns’ size and length shooters would have a tougher time shooting the corner 3, needing to launch a rainbow over Towns’ reach. Also with Towns’ size and length, he will be able to get a lot of steals off ball being in the passing lanes. And finally while still being close to the basket, Towns will be able to help protect the rim and contribute with rebounds. Luka Doncic still averaged 10 rebounds per game in this same role, and as great as Doncic is, he isn’t blessed with great lateral quickness. Some of the less obvious ways to see Towns’ defensive impact on the perimeter is how other players respond when Towns guards them. Here is a clip of Devin Booker with the ball on the top of the key versus Towns and instead of electing to attack the mismatch, he chooses to pass it to the corner.
Gersson Rosas has taken note of Towns’ perimeter defense and as seen in this clip, Towns is on the perimeter while James Johnson is in the middle protecting the rim. Johnson is definitely not a rim protector in the long term. It’s just an experiment that Rosas wants to see on film.
This season was mostly about establishing a new culture and a new system. Not about winning. Moving forward, Gersson Rosas will have to find a rim protector that will play with Karl-Anthony Towns. Maybe it will be in free agency, like signing unrestricted free agent Willie Cauley-Stein to a team friendly deal. The last time Towns played with WCS, he only lost one game all season and had a defensive rating of 78.1. Another option will be drafting a rookie like James Wiseman. With a 9’6 standing reach, Wiseman has ideal measurements for an NBA rim protector and a lot more upside than WCS. Best case scenario would be to draft James Wiseman and sign WCS for the bench. This would allow Towns to focus solely on perimeter skills and not need to manage multiple roles. With two rim protectors taking the toughest assignment defensively, Towns would have a much easier job zoned to defend the corner 3 which would give him a lot more energy to maximize him on the offensive end.
While Wiseman or WCS could possibly ruin a 5 out offense, to maximize Towns, a 4 out offense would be even more effective. Every basketball player has tendencies and Towns definitely has some unique tendencies for a Center. Most Centers struggle with shooting and bring an element of screening and rolling, demanding attention in the middle of the floor as lob threat and open up driving lanes for their teammates in the pick and roll. For instance, Rudy Gobert, doesn’t shoot, but with his great screens and vertical gravity as lob target, opens up the corner 3. The Jazz only trail the Rockets in corner 3 attempts as a result, and make those shots at a 41% clip. Outstanding! Towns on the other hand, doesn’t provide the vertical gravity around the basket. Out of his 316 makes for the year, only 9 were made by screening and rolling to the rim. Thats less than 3% of his buckets. As a result, even though the Wolves attempted the 3rd most 3s, they are in middle of the pack in corner 3 attempts and lean heavily on the tougher above the break 3 point shot, which leads to less efficient offense. For the year, no team has averaged 40% shooting 3s from above the break. However from the corner, 14 teams have averaged at least 40% from 3. The Wolves are one of the worst at shooting corner 3s, about 33%. And that’s because the vertical spacer, the lob threat doesn’t exist, so the corner 3 point shooters are often guarded much closer and have less time to shoot it. Without the vertical spacer/lob threat its like playing chess without the Knight piece. Not the most important piece but still crucial for winning games.
What makes Towns unique in the modern game is the 3 point shooting especially above the break. Towns has made 40.7% of his threes from above the break on 7.1 attempts per game. The most ridiculous statistic is Towns’ step back efficiency from 3, at 45.7% on 35 attempts for the year.
The only big man with similar efficiency with the step back is Danilo Gallinari, and Jaren Jackson Jr has shown some promise but less efficient for now. What is note worthy is both Gallinari and Jackson are on playoff teams and play the PF position. What differentiates Towns from Gallinari and Jackson is his playmaking. For the year, Towns has averaged 4.4 assists per game compared to 2.1 for Gallinari, and 1.4 for Jackson. The interesting part is Towns has averaged these assists while playing on a bad 3 point shooting team. Although it’s only a 2 game sample size, Towns has averaged 8 assists after the trade deadline with much better shooters.
Karl-Anthony Towns is more of a 7’ PG than a Center in todays NBA, and that’s what really makes him a generational talent. Towns is excellent at creating his own shot in isolation, ranking in the 90th percentile. The next best big in isolation is Nikola Jokic, ranked in the 80th percentile on similar frequency. Moving forward Rosas needs to help Towns counter his 3 point shooting by helping him become a better driver to the basket. Towns has averaged 4.1 drives per game which is about as often as Zion Williamson or Bam Adebayo, yet still far from Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 10.6 drives per game. The fact that Towns has to be guarded very closely being a threat to shoot, he can blow by his man with a dribble hand off fake, or if he is guarded by a slower big. However Towns isn’t Giannis and doesn’t have the explosive burst, so to help Towns generate more driving lanes, playing with another big that can screen and roll for Towns would really raise the frequency of drives to the basket.
Without a screener, Towns is often draped by defenders and struggles finishing at the basket, but given a big man that can screen for him will allow Towns to be a pick and roll ball handler with much more freedom to drive. And the fact that Towns is a lethal shooter with a step back, defenders can’t go under the screen which would allow Towns an open driving lane against a drop coverage big. Then given a bouncy roll man like Wiseman with a 7’6” wingspan, that’s a nightmare scenario for any team. Two 7’ bigs attacking the basket versus 1 big in drop coverage with spot up shooters like Malik Beasley and D’Angelo Russell in the corners with Towns’ passing ability. Thats an unstoppable scenario for any team! And when Towns needs a break on ball, D’Angelo Russell can take over as a pick and roll ball handler with James Wiseman while Towns spaces the floor. In Russel’s lone all star year with the Brooklyn Nets, almost 20% of Russel’s assists went to Jarret Allen as the roll man. Also Russell averaged 12 drives per game with Allen’s screens, which opened up driving lanes for him. Without a great roll man, Russell averaged 7.9 drives per game in his 12 games with the Wolves. Even though Russell is a PG and Towns is a Center, both players are very much alike as elite shooters but average athletes, and would be much more effective with a great pick and roll finisher since neither one is likely to blow by their man very often.
It’s ironic that a rim runner/rim protector would take the Wolves to the next level when these players are viewed as replaceable in today’s NBA which gives Gersson Rosas a big advantage to key on his favorite ones that would fit the team’s salary cap. Also the fact that everyone is thinking to go small ball when the Wolves would improve by going bigger would put a wrench in other team’s roster construction. Towns can bully smaller players in the post, and with better shooters around him its harder to double team him and therefore would force other teams to go bigger and slower. Playing bigger than every team might seem like the Wolves would get run out of the gym in transition, but the fact that bigs like Wiseman and Willie Cauley-Stein can run like guards and wings is the reason that won’t happen.
Transition offense is a major emphasis on winning teams like the Raptors, Lakers, and Bucks scoring often in transition. The Timberwolves want to play fast and are one of the leaders in pace but don’t score as often in transition. Towns typically tends to trail the rest in transition so having another big that can lead in transition as a rim runner would be a major boost to the offense. And for a massive big man like Wiseman that can easily catch a Hail Mary and euro step his way through smaller defenders in transition would be a game changer for the Wolves, and would make winning that much easier.
By zagging while the rest of the NBA is zigging will give the Wolves a competitive advantage in the constantly evolving NBA. The next generation of bigs are watching the current space and pace NBA which favors shooting and playmaking from everyone, so kids are learning skills that no one practiced before. Instead of practicing post moves, kids are doing ball handling drills and shooting off the dribble. At this point most teams prefer to play small with 1 big but eventually bigs will catch up with improved perimeter skills and this trend will change to possibly 3 big lineups. For example the Nuggets could some day play Jokic, Porter, and Bol Bol in their starting lineup. And the Lakers are already starting LeBron(6’9/250), Davis, and McGee. Because you can’t replace size but skills can alway be improved. The Timberwolves are blessed with the best shooting and playmaking big man, and if they don’t put him in a role that better utilizes his skill set, they will continue to lose and sooner than later Towns will demand a trade to a smarter team that will play him as their PF.
Do you guys think Karl-Anthony Towns would be more productive with this strategy? What do you think Rosas should do this offseason?
